‘We expect Treasury yields to decline’: UBS
US Treasury yields reached their highest point since late November of the previous year. This increase occurred despite widespread market expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week.
The yields on both the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds experienced significant jumps, with the 10-year yield climbing 25 basis points to 4.4% and the 30-year yield rising 28 basis points to 4.6%.
“While further volatility is likely, we expect Treasury yields to decline in a lower-rate environment. We believe quality bonds offer appealing expected returns and potential for capital gains, and see value in diversified fixed income strategies, including senior loans,” Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote.
Investors’ concerns seem to have been reignited over the potential fiscal policies of President-elect Donald Trump, which may lead to an increase in government borrowing and exert upward pressure on inflation rates.
These concerns are reflected in the rising yields, which move inversely to bond prices. The apprehension is partly due to the stronger-than-anticipated producer price index (PPI) for November, suggesting an uptick in inflation pressure.
The recent auction of US Treasury bonds also contributed to the market’s nervousness. The US Treasury’s attempt to sell $22 billion worth of 30-year bonds faced a lukewarm reception, indicating soft demand from investors.
This lackluster demand for long-term debt could be a sign of investors’ cautious stance towards the US government’s fiscal outlook and long-term interest rates.
The market’s current state, with rising yields and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, underscores the complexity of the economic environment. Investors are closely monitoring the mix of fiscal and monetary policy signals to gauge the future direction of the economy.
As the Federal Open Market Committee convenes this week, all eyes will be on their decision regarding interest rates. The outcome will likely have a significant impact on the markets, as investors seek clarity on the Federal Reserve’s approach to balancing economic growth with inflation concerns.
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