Traders keep bets on 25 bps Fed rate cuts in Nov, Dec

(Reuters) – The case for quarter-point U.S. interest-rate cuts at upcoming Federal Reserve policy meetings appeared intact on Friday after a report showed producer prices were unchanged last month compared to the prior month, suggesting inflation continues on track toward the Federal Reserve’s target. 

Futures contracts that settle to the Fed’s policy rate continued to imply only a 15% chance that the Fed will leave its target for short-term borrowing costs in the current 4.75%-5.00% range when it meets in early November, with the bulk of bets on reductions in each of the last two meetings of this year and for the each of the first several meetings of 2025, to be in the 3.50%-3.75% range by the middle of next year.