Take Five: Growth, shops and rates

(Reuters) – China’s GDP figures, U.S. retail sales and a rate decision by the European Central Bank headline the coming week, while earnings are under way on both sides of the Atlantic and UK markets get nervy ahead of the new government’s first budget.

Here’s a look at the week ahead in global markets by Rae Wee in Singapore, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam, and Naomi Rovnick and Samuel Indyk in London.

1/ ON TARGET?

China’s third-quarter growth figures, due Oct. 18, are headlining a busy week scattered with data releases from the world’s second-largest economy.

Policymakers have said they are “fully confident” of achieving their full-year growth target of around 5% – a somewhat bold statement considering Q2’s dismal number and with Q3 unlikely to fare much better.

But investors may look past the pessimism given Beijing only recently unveiled aggressive stimulus measures in a move that sent mainland stocks scaling fresh highs. Some of that excitement has since faded, but any further details of fiscal support could drive the next leg of the market rally.

Alongside GDP data, China will release figures on trade, house prices and retail sales, giving policymakers a clue on how much work they have cut out for them before year-end.

2/CUTTING TRACK

The ECB is set to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, a move policymakers were reluctant to flag and traders gave less than a 25% chance to when the bank met a month ago.

But September euro zone business activity unexpectedly contracting stoked worries the ECB may be cutting rates too slowly as the bloc’s economy wobbles. Inflation has slowed sharply, dropping below the ECB’s 2% target in September, shifting the focus for policymakers now onto growth risks.

Economists reckon Thursday’s move could kick off back-to-back rate cuts. But rate setters, once burnt twice shy, are unlikely to jump on the bandwagon just yet.

But a more explicit shift may come soon, perhaps in December when the bank releases new forecasts. Even top hawk Isabel Schnabel has dropped her long-standing warning about the difficulty of taming inflation.

3/ SHOPPERS AND BANKERS

Markets get another reading on the health of the U.S. consumer on Thursday, with investors hoping retail sales data will offer further insight into an economy that is turning out to be far more resilient than many had expected.

Stronger-than-expected recent labour market data spurred a recalibration of bets on how deeply the Fed will need to cut rates in coming months, lifting Treasury yields and bolstering the U.S. dollar.

A robust retail sales number could further amplify that trend, offering evidence of strength in an important pocket of the world’s largest economy.

With earnings season under way, results from big banks including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, both reporting on Tuesday, could offer further insight on how consumers are faring.

4/ DEFIANT EARNINGS

LVMH and ASML (AS:ASML) – two of Europe’s biggest companies – are due to report results in the coming week, kicking off earnings season on the continent.

While the euro zone economy struggles to muster any sort of growth, corporate earnings are seen growing for a second straight quarter for the first time since Q1 2023, according to LSEG Data.

That makes for a high bar to hurdle, but as earnings expectations have been lowered coming into reporting season, analysts are still optimistic that Europe Inc will clear it.

With the STOXX 600 index less than 2% from its all time high, a more robust earnings picture could bring fresh peaks, as seen in the U.S. in recent days.

5/ LOOMING BUDGET

Britain’s lenders in international bond markets are getting nervous ahead of the new Labour government’s first budget on Oct. 30. September inflation data, out Wednesday, could make them feel even worse.

Ten-year gilt yields are around their highest since early July after investors sold off in part due to concerns about finance minister Rachel Reeves relaxing borrowing rules to fund public investments. Anxiety about extra debt sales has coincided with uncertainty about whether inflation has been tamed.

The annual rate of UK consumer price increases held steady at 2.2% overall in August, but accelerated to 5.6% in the dominant services sector. Recent data showed rising grocery inflation and retail spending.

Traders widely expect a second Bank of England rate cut in November, but Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Chief Economist Huw Pill have given mixed signals about what happens after that.

(Graphics by Prinz Magtulis, Danilo Masoni, Kripa Jayaram, Kevin Yao and Sumanta Sen; Compiled by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alison Williams)