Romanian macroeconomic indicators and interest rate forecasts: Reuters poll

BUCHAREST (Reuters) – The median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts puts Romanian inflation at 4.4% year-on-year at the end of October, down from September’s 4.62%.

Analysts expect inflation to fall to 4.8% by year-end and 3.9% by end-2025, both above the central bank’s current forecasts of 4.0% and 3.4%, respectively. The bank, which targets inflation at 1.5%-3.5%, will release new forecasts for this year and next later this month.

Five of seven analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 6.50% at its next meeting on Nov. 8. Borrowing costs are seen at 6.00% by June and 5.50% by end-2025.

Analysts expect the economy to have grown 1.9% on the year in the third quarter. They see it growing 1.8% overall in 2024 and 2.8% next year.