Policy pivot is catalyst for rotation from India to China: CSLA

Investing.com — A shift in policy has triggered a market rotation from India to China, driven by China’s recent policy pivot, as per CLSA analysts in a note dated Monday. 

The brokerage suggests that China’s policy adjustments, including monetary easing and fiscal support, will act as a catalyst for a potential rally in Chinese equities, while Indian stocks, which have seen consistent inflows, may now face increased risk of underperformance.

The note flags that the deceleration phase in the global market cycle has been in effect, with economic growth slowing down but avoiding a sharp contraction. 

Against this backdrop, China, long considered a lagging market, now appears poised for a turnaround, as the country embarks on a policy pivot aimed at reviving growth. 

A combination of rate cuts and support for the property and stock markets has fueled optimism for a continued rally in Chinese equities.

CSLA’s Quantamental framework, which evaluates market attractiveness based on factors such as quality, yield, value, and risk, now favors China over India. 

China ranks higher on quality and yield, with Chinese stocks appearing relatively cheaper and less risky compared to Indian equities. 

As per the brokerage, China’s previous underperformance was largely due to its growth slowdown, which was already priced in, but improvements in key metrics such as quality and yield were not fully recognized. This has now started to change.

The analysts mention that the sentiment reversal surrounding China could drive foreign inflows, potentially drawing as much as $120 billion in funds, a movement that poses a direct challenge to India. 

India, which has benefited from substantial foreign investment in recent years, particularly in 2024, is seen as vulnerable to outflows as global funds seek opportunities in China.

Moreover, CLSA points out that India’s valuations have become stretched, leaving it more exposed. 

While Indian equities have benefited from high inflows, particularly from domestic retail investors, the market faces risks from rising oil prices, potential disruptions due to large-scale IPOs, and recent regulatory changes aimed at curbing retail trading in derivatives. 

These factors could dampen investor sentiment and trigger a reallocation of funds away from India.

The contrast in performance expectations is stark. While Chinese equities are expected to benefit from their current policy shift, Indian stocks, despite their strong recent performance, are likely to experience a phase of underperformance relative to China. 

Historically, when India has underperformed China, the duration has averaged about 3.9 months with a decline of 13%, while Chinese equities surged during the same periods.

CLSA suggests that investors seeking shelter during this anticipated phase of Indian underperformance should focus on high-quality, yield-generating stocks within India, and be wary of those with high risk and growth potential, which may underperform in the short term.