NXP Semiconductors shares rise after UBS upgrade amid strong growth outlook

Investing.com — Shares of NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) (F:NXPI) rose on Monday after UBS upgraded the company’s stock to “buy,” from “neutral,” reflecting growing confidence in its long-term growth prospects. 

At 4:43 am (0843 GMT), NXP Semiconductors was trading 1.4% up at €215.

The move comes amid a broader downturn in the semiconductor sector, where NXP has managed to stand out through a combination of inventory management and resilient pricing, setting the stage for a robust recovery in 2025. 

UBS analysts cited several factors for the upgrade, raising their price target to $285, up from the previous target of $275, signaling an optimistic outlook for the stock.

NXP, which has outperformed the analog semiconductor sub-sector this year, has seen its shares lag behind peers, trading at about a 40% discount compared to competitors, down from a 30% discount at the start of the year. 

This disconnect is largely attributed to concerns surrounding its heavy exposure to the automotive industry, which makes up 56% of its revenues. 

The automotive sector has faced significant challenges, leading to fears that companies like NXP, with large auto portfolios, might struggle. However, UBS analysts argue that these fears are exaggerated.

The semiconductor giant is well-positioned to capitalize on the shift toward zonal and domain architectures in vehicles, a transition that is expected to increase the dollar content of microcontroller units per vehicle by more than 30%. 

This shift in electronics architecture will require greater computing capacity in vehicles, and NXP, with its strong portfolio of high-performance MCUs like the S32 family, stands to benefit significantly. 

UBS estimates that NXP’s auto revenues could see high single-digit compounded annual growth over the next few years, even without substantial vehicle production growth. 

The company’s focus on higher-margin, advanced automotive applications such as zonal controllers and domain controllers further strengthens its position in this growing market.

Additionally, UBS flagged NXP’s impressive ability to manage through the semiconductor industry’s recent downcycle. While many of its peers have seen gross margins contract by more than 900 basis points during this period, NXP’s margin contraction was limited to just 50 basis points. 

This is largely due to improvements in operational efficiency, the company’s exit from lower-margin businesses, and strong management of channel inventory and pricing. 

UBS data suggests that NXP has kept its channel inventories healthier than competitors like STMicroelectronics and Infineon (OTC:IFNNY), with pricing declining by only low single digits year-over-year, compared to more significant drops among its peers.

Going forward, UBS anticipates further catalysts that could drive NXP’s stock higher. The upcoming Capital Markets Day in November is expected to feature an upward revision of the company’s gross margin targets, which currently stand at 55% to 58%. 

Analysts believe this revision, along with continued operational improvements, will boost investor confidence and could lead to earnings upgrades for the company.

In terms of valuation, NXP trades at a considerable discount to its U.S. peers, despite its operational strength. UBS views this discount as unwarranted, particularly given the company’s strong positioning for future growth in both automotive and industrial segments. 

The brokerage expects NXP to grow its revenues by 11% in 2025, significantly outpacing close peers, who are forecasted to grow at a rate of 5% to 10%. 

UBS remains confident that NXP’s inventory management and pricing strength will mitigate potential downside risks, setting the stage for a strong recovery as the semiconductor market rebounds.