NWSL playoffs preview: Who will win the 2024 NWSL championship?
The NWSL playoffs kick off on Friday, and we may be on the precipice of the best postseason the league has ever seen.
The Orlando Pride set records en route to the NWSL Shield, yet were chased all the way to the line by the Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC, and the Kansas City Current, making this hands-down the best top four the league has ever seen.
Further down the table, the North Carolina Courage have shown they can compete with anyone in the NWSL on their day, while the Portland Thorns, Bay FC, and Chicago Red Stars all have the star power to pull off upsets.
Here is Pro Soccer Wire‘s complete playoff preview, examining each team’s chances for winning it all, where they might stumble, and the X-factor that could (for better or worse) define a postseason run.
1. Orlando Pride
Can they really win it all?
The Pride broke NWSL records for points (60) and wins (18), went unbeaten until their 24th game of the season, and shut their opponents out in fully half of their league matches. They have an MVP candidate in Barbra Banda, a rejuvenated legend in Marta, outstanding depth on every line, and they’ve figured out how to win via possession, or by counter-attacking, or by playing to a stalemate and dominating on set pieces.
Viewing them as anything other than a potential champion seems foolish.
What might go wrong?
Orlando has been the best team in the league, but they aren’t the team with the biggest expected goals margin (that’d be the Kansas City Current, whose plus-29.1 gap is breathtaking), and the xGA figures hold that the Pride gave up enough chances to concede 28 goals rather than the 20 they actually did. That amount of overperformance can’t purely be ascribed to goalkeeping or emergency defending.
Orlando’s form has also cooled, with two losses in the last three games of the season. We haven’t seen the best out of the Pride since a 2-0 win over Washington back on Oct. 6. If Orlando finds its very best form even marginally out of reach, there are several teams who are perfectly capable of sending them home.
X-factor: Will Banda get back on track?
In Banda’s first 918 minutes of NWSL play ever, the Zambia star scored 12 goals and added five assists. It was like winding the clock back to watch Sam Kerr’s solo domination in her Chicago Red Stars days, with Banda showing the ability to score a wide range of goals while also creating for others. Teams came up with good plans to slow her down, and it didn’t matter.
In the final 913 minutes of her regular season, Banda put up just one goal and one assist. You rarely see a season that can be broken in half like this, where Banda’s first 918 minutes came with 9.8 expected goals, and her final 913 came with just 3.6. When it comes to shot-creating actions, it’s not as dramatic (56 in the 1st half, 35 in the second), but it’s still a marked drop.
If Orlando emerges in the playoffs with the unstoppable Banda from the start of the season, they’re locked-in favorites to bring home a second trophy in this stunning season. If the striker is merely very good, the door is open for someone to knock the Pride off.
2. Washington Spirit
Can they really win it all?
Washington equaled that ‘most wins in a season’ record shortly after Orlando set the new mark, and from any angle you look at it, they have the kind of balance and adaptability any NWSL champion needs. There’s elite technical ability, creativity, athleticism, experience, and youth dotting this roster, and in Jonatan Giráldez they have a coach with a demonstrable ability to win knockout soccer matches.
If you can think of a problem to throw their way, the Spirit have the solution. Croix Bethune’s season-ending injury should have derailed the attack, especially in conjunction with co-leading scorer Ouleymata Sarr’s ongoing struggles with a back problem. Instead, Trinity Rodman took over, and then when her back sidelined her for a few weeks, Ashley Hatch emerged with her best run of form in years. Andi Sullivan’s torn ACL meant that Washington lost the player that defines this team on and off the field more than any other, and the Spirit just changed formations and dominated multiple games with an all-rookie midfield.
It would be no surprise if this team puts a second star above their badge.
What might go wrong?
Finding solutions and constantly adapting means the Spirit have also been something of an ad hoc production all season, with the dynamics changing as Giráldez arrived, just as they had when Adrián González guided the team through the first months of the campaign. Players have pushed themselves into roles of fundamental importance, only to become unavailable. The puzzle in Washington has had to be reconstructed multiple times.
If the Spirit can’t bring home a trophy, it might boil down to being in flux for so much of the year. The principles undergirding how Washington plays are well-defined, but circumstances have kept this group from being able to hone its ideal blend of style, system, and personnel.
X-factor: Is it Rodman time?
Whether it was a superb Olympic performance or an NWSL season that seems likely to end in an MVP nomination, Rodman has spent 2024 in the form of her young career. No one has an answer for the attacker, who also has a preternatural understanding of how to take over in the critical moments. There might not be a player with more access to their very, very best play than Rodman in crunch time.
However, Rodman’s build-up from a back injury has progressed slowly. That’s by design, with Giráldez having spent weeks emphasizing that the run-in was about being ready for the playoffs more than anything else. If Rodman is not just good to go but feeling 100%, there’s a credible argument that Washington should be the thinking neutral’s most likely champion. If not? The Spirit’s path to victory will be a lot more complicated.
3. NJ/NY Gotham FC
Can they really win it all?
Yes, absolutely. Over the past two months the Bats have a legit claim to the title of the best-performing team in the NWSL, posting a 9W-3D-2L record and a gaudy plus-28 goal difference in that span (including multi-goal wins over three NWSL playoff teams).
Even with a heavy work load for their national-team-level stars and a schedule clogged with things like the Concacaf W Champions Cup and the NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup final, Gotham is performing better right now than they did en route to winning the 2023 NWSL Championship.
What might go wrong?
Amid that red-hot run there are a couple of blips, including a 4-4 home draw against Liga MX Femenil’s Tigres and a 3-0 loss to the Orlando Pride, indicating that Gotham might have a lower floor than the other contenders. The Bats hold just a 2W-1D-4L record in regular-season matches against the rest of NWSL’s top five, and held an inferior expected goals split (9.4 to 11.7) in those matches.
The worst news for Gotham? Washington’s 1-0 win last Saturday ensured the Spirit of a second-place finish, meaning a potentially titanic semifinal battle will take place at Audi Field rather than Red Bull Arena. Washington beat Gotham 2-0 in both league meetings this year, and their 10W-1D-2L home record is the second-best in NWSL this season. That’s not who you want to face on the road in a must-win playoff game.
X-factor: Can Esther maintain this form?
It’s tempting to cite other combinations or individuals on a star-studded Gotham roster, but it’s the veteran Spain attacker who has taken over of late. Whether deployed as a No. 9 or in an attacking midfield role, Esther has been in stellar form recently. Over the last four games, Esther has racked up five goals and an assist, and we’re not talking about tap-ins:
On Oct. 5, Bay FC did an admirable job of cutting Esther out of the game, with the 31-year-old getting just 11 touches. The problem? She still posted two goals and an assist in a 5-1 win. Every touch for Esther right now is dangerous, which is exactly what Gotham fans want to hear.
4. Kansas City Current
Can they really win it all?
Multiple data measures cite the Current as the actual best team in the NWSL in 2024. In expected goal difference, KC’s plus-29.1 tops the table by a wide margin, while a model using the Elo system gave Vlatko Andonovski’s side a ranking narrowly ahead of (in order) Gotham, Washington, and Orlando.
With the championship set for CPKC Stadium, the Current also have a chance to host a final regardless of who comes through. Temwa Chawinga is the presumptive MVP, a player that teams have not come close to solving this season, and the midseason additions of Almuth Schult, Alana Cook, and Kayla Sharples have bolstered a defense that seemed vulnerable.
In a league often called transitional, the best transition team has to be a favorite, and that’s KC.
What might go wrong?
To zoom in on the biggest issue any of the top four has: the Current have struggled all season defending set pieces. KC gave up 12 goals on dead-ball situations this season, tied with Racing Louisville for the worst figure league-wide.
Cook and Sharples have helped somewhat, adding two aerial presences to one of the league’s smaller teams, but whether going full zonal or a hybrid of zonal and man-marking, KC lets opponents get into favorable positions relative to the ball. Seven of those dozen goals conceded were scored by someone finishing the initial service, the highest such total in the league.
Gotham and Orlando scored 11 set piece goals this season, while Washington and Bay FC weren’t far behind with nine apiece. If KC’s set piece defending merely follows the team’s year-long tendencies, you have to assume someone’s going to get a critical goal against them from a corner, free kick, or throw-in.
X-factor: How fit is Chawinga?
Chawinga, the Golden Boot winner and single-season goal record holder, missed KC’s regular season finale with a knee injury. Andonovski referred to that issue as day-to-day, and while the Kansas City Star reported that Chawinga started training off without restriction, generally the portion of a given NWSL training session open to media is the lowest-impact warm-up stage right at the beginning.
As such, this question is a multi-part issue. Can Chawinga play at all? Can she start? And finally, if those hurdles are cleared, is she actually at her best? There’s not a team in NWSL history who could simply shrug off losing a player like Chawinga for the playoffs, and with Bia Zaneratto already ruled out for the quarterfinals, the Current are already dealing with a major absence.
5. North Carolina Courage
Can they really win it all?
NWSL’s possession experts, the Courage held 57.2% of the ball in their games this season, and racked up over 1,700 more touches on the ball than any other team. This doesn’t just mean they have an intention to keep the ball, but rather that they successfully dictate the terms. No one managed to hold a possession edge over the Courage in a regular season game, with only one (a March 30 1-0 win over Gotham) ending with a 50/50 split.
If you’re playing NC, they come in knowing they can starve you of the ball, which narrows your options. This means the Courage come into games with a clear picture of how things are going to play out, and are playing the kind of game they want to be playing.
This kind of consistency in setting up how the game will play out means the Courage step onto the field with a chance to win every time.
What might go wrong?
The Courage finished fifth, which means they’re going to have to survive at least one road game to advance, and in all likelihood will have to secure a result in three straight games away from WakeMed Soccer Park.
That hasn’t been easy for NC in 2024. The Courage lost 10 of 13 road games in regular season play, scoring less than one goal per game. That performance is in line with expected goal data, and it matches the eye test. NC keeps the ball and makes you chase, but between lower levels of execution and holding numbers back in favor of defensive solidity and press resistance, the goal threat that’s present in Cary doesn’t tend to follow this group when they leave home.
X-factor: Can Sanchez and Kerolin link up?
Ashley Sanchez has had an excellent first season with the Courage, and that was despite sharing the field with former NWSL MVP Kerolin for a grand total of 209 minutes (and that number was spread among five different games). This was a known issue given Kerolin’s recovery from a torn ACL suffered late last year, and pairing these two has been an ace up NC’s collective sleeve.
However, attacking chemistry can take time, and though Sanchez noted a quick bond being formed all the way back in August, we haven’t seen it all that much in games. That’s not to blame the players or coaches, but rather point out that if the NWSL season is a theatrical production, a Sanchez-to-Kerolin wonder goal is a potential Chekhov’s Gun.
We’ve seen Kerolin dominate in the postseason before, and we’ve seen Sanchez score one of the great NWSL playoff goals of all time, something seemingly pulled from some kind of hard science fiction novel where the protagonist can see in five dimensions. What we haven’t seen yet — and what the Courage will probably need to bring a trophy home — is these two stars working in tandem.
6. Portland Thorns
Can they really win it all?
Let’s be real: the Thorns have largely been disappointing all season, outside of a brief burst of form from late April to mid-June. Portland has won just two league matches since the end of the Olympic break, and has been particularly vulnerable defending in transition. It’s no mistake that the Thorns haven’t won away from home since May, and now they’re going to need to do so at least twice.
For a team with this much raw talent, experience, and motivation, there’s always a chance to spring an upset. But realistically, the pieces haven’t fit together in 2024 in a way where a neutral can talk themselves into believing Portland can make another run.
What might go wrong?
The ‘good’ Thorns have popped up recently, in wins over Orlando and Angel City. However, the ‘bad’ Thorns have appeared just as regularly, particularly in unimpressive losses at Racing Louisville and the San Diego Wave, and most especially in a 2-1 loss at Providence Park to Utah.
An inability to get pressure to the ball or retain a compact, coherent team shape has made Portland too easy to play over, around, and through, and it’s hard to believe they can offer a robust defensive resistance in three consecutive games.
X-factor: Can Smith and Coffey hard-carry Portland?
One-off soccer is notoriously hard to predict, with the rarity of goals meaning that one moment of individual brilliance or bad luck matters more in this sport than just about any other. If you have world-class players, you’ve always got hope.
This is good news for Portland, who in Sophia Smith and Sam Coffey will put USWNT starters on the field in critical positions. Smith will have to be a magician, and Coffey will have to channel ‘Julie Ertz, 2019 World Cup’ levels of play for every second to paper over the cracks that at this point are unlikely to disappear, but neither of those things are impossible. If these two put in some career-defining performances in the coming weeks, you can’t rule Portland out.
7. Bay FC
Can they really win it all?
Bay does have some data points that at least rule out a hard ‘no.’ The best of them is the entire back half of the season (after head coach Albertin Montoya began a shift away from a dogmatic, possession-heavy approach to embrace a more press-oriented, transitional style). Bay picked up 22 of its 34 points in the final 13 matches of the season, and a full season of that 1.69 points-per-game pace would have seen Racheal Kundananji and co. finish fifth. This team, right now, is better than the seventh-best team in the NWSL.
However, that might not be quite enough of a gain to knock off a true contender. Should Bay spring a big upset by surviving a trip to Audi Field, they’d very likely have to come back to the East Coast to beat a red-hot Gotham FC, and the odds have Orlando or Kansas City looming in the final.
It’s been a really strong season for Bay, but a championship looks out of reach in year one.
What might go wrong?
This has been a remarkable expansion campaign, and one with a lot of positives to point to. However, it’s a bad time to walk in as a good team when four of the best (and most consistent) teams NWSL has ever seen happened to rock up at the same time.
The expansion club lost all eight of its games against the top four, and with the exception of a 1-0 loss to Orlando, those results were fair. The league’s elites shut Bay out five times, conceding just four goals in that set of matches. A month ago, Gotham demolished Bay 5-1, while Washington and Kansas City each dominated both meetings.
There’s no shame in that, and there are seasons where teams built like Bay went on to win it all. However, this year power is especially concentrated among four teams, and that significantly lowers the odds of a merely ‘good’ team making a run.
X-factor: Can Katelyn Rowland step up?
Regardless of style of play concerns for Bay, goalkeeping has been an issue. Montoya made the right call in giving Katelyn Rowland a shot after Lysianne Proulx’s early-season struggles, and the NWSL veteran has deservedly kept the job.
However, Rowland’s performance has not been among the best compared to her playoff peers. Of the eight starting goalkeepers entering the postseason, Rowland’s Goals Added (minus 0.72) and her post-shot expected goals plus/minus (+0.7) are seventh, only ahead of Portland’s Shelby Hogan. To be fair to Hogan, she has improved of late, with a G+ (0.11) that ranks fifth among projected starters since August 1, while Rowland (minus 1.63) has declined.
Even with better results, Bay hasn’t been able to dominate games in a way where this can be shrugged off. The expansion side needs its goalkeeper to stand out, and currently the signs point to that being too big of an ask.
8. Chicago Red Stars
Can they really win it all?
That’s asking a lot. Chicago is rebuilding on and off the field, and making the postseason at all marks 2024 as a success. Lorne Donaldson has instilled a defense-first, gritty mentality, and the Red Stars are a potent counter-attacking threat. Perhaps most importantly, the Red Stars play against-the-ball soccer, which means going away from home throughout the playoffs is no big deal. On the road, Chicago collected 20 points; at home, just 12.
It’s a big reach to talk about a championship, but one upset? Well, Chicago’s last visit to Orlando ended in a 1-1 draw, and they also secured a point in Kansas City. We’ve seen longer shots than this Red Stars bunch advance in NWSL postseasons past.
What might go wrong?
Those two draws against the top four are the only times Chicago played a team in that group and avoided defeat. Four of those losses were by two goals, and on six occasions the Red Stars were held to less than 1.0 xG. They also lost both meetings with North Carolina 3-1, and have just two wins all season over the other seven playoff teams.
Chicago has been NWSL’s litmus test all season. Winning eight of 12 against the league’s bottom six sides shows that the Red Stars are able to keep a consistently high floor in terms of performance level. It’s just that the playoffs are about ceiling, not floor, and it’s fair to argue that every team in the postseason can hit higher heights than the Red Stars.
X-factor: This team has Naeher and Swanson, while others don’t
This is just a statement of fact: the Chicago Red Stars have one of global soccer’s great match-winners in Mallory Swanson, and a goalkeeper in Alyssa Naeher who has shown she can access a different plane of existence in crunch time. With the USWNT, both have been decisive players capable of willing their side to victory.
If the major-tournament USWNT version of both players show up Friday night, Orlando’s wonderful season is under distinct threat. The same goes in the semifinal and final. It’s asking an enormous amount from both players, and Chicago still has to hold up defensively in a way that doesn’t waste otherworldly individual performances, but we know for sure that Naeher and Swanson can hold up their end of this particular bargain.
