NFL playoff picture: ‘TNF’ causes AFC’s No. 1 seed to change hands
Every week for the duration of the 2025 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too.)
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 4.
Here’s where things stand with Week 11 of the 2025 season underway:
AFC playoff picture
1. New England Patriots (9-2), AFC East leaders: The first team in the league to reach nine wins, they’re in prime position to win the division for the first time since Tom Brady led them to first place in 2019 and maybe their first No. 1 playoff seed since 2017. Thursday night’s defeat of the Jets moved the Pats past the idle Colts, but New England will need help to hang on to it into Week 12. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
2. Indianapolis Colts (8-2), AFC South leaders: The schedule’s been soft, but you can’t control whom you play − though the second-half lineup seems much less forgiving. A last-second Week 2 defeat of the Broncos gives the Colts the tiebreaker for second place at this point in time. Remaining schedule: BYE, at Chiefs, vs. Texans, at Jaguars, at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans
3. Denver Broncos (8-2), AFC West leaders: They’re also winning a lot of ugly games − as they did last week against Las Vegas. But wins are wins − and if the Broncos get one in Sunday’s AFC West showdown with Kansas City, they’ll overtake the Pats for the conference’s top spot by virtue of a better record in AFC games. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, BYE, at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4), AFC North leaders: Don’t look now, fellas, but you’re only one game up on Baltimore for the division lead. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Bears, vs. Bills, at Ravens, vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, vs. Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3), wild card No. 1: Spirited defensive play has provided fresh evidence that maybe they can overcome their litany of offensive injuries. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, BYE, vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
6. Buffalo Bills (6-3), wild card No. 2: They’re starting to lose sight of the Patriots atop the AFC East after a pathetic performance at Miami in Week 10 − and the Bills have a much tougher schedule to finish out. Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Texans, at Steelers, vs. Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4), wild card No. 3: Tough loss at Houston on Sunday. But their Week 5 defeat of the Chiefs, who are also 5-4, could eventually loom large for both teams. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Cardinals, at Titans, vs. Colts, vs. Jets, at Broncos, vs. Colts, at Titans
NFC playoff picture
1. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2), NFC East leaders: Something catastrophic (not uncommon in Philly) would have to occur for the defending champs not to be the first back-to-back winners of this division since they last did it … 21 years ago. A superior record (6-1) in NFC games allowed the Eagles to move ahead of the Seahawks and atop the conference following Monday night’s escape at Lambeau Field. Big game Sunday night against Detroit. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Cowboys, vs. Bears, at Chargers, vs. Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, vs. Commanders
2. Seattle Seahawks (7-2), NFC West leaders: Winners of four in a row, they currently have a better record in NFC West games than the Rams, who are also 7-2. But those clubs will meet in L.A. in Week 11. Remaining schedule: at Rams, at Titans, vs. Vikings, at Falcons, vs. Colts, vs. Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers
3. Detroit Lions (6-3), NFC North leaders: The offense responded Sunday as Dan Campbell assumed the offensive play-calling. Green Bay’s loss Monday night moved Detroit atop the division. Remaining schedule: at Eagles, vs. Giants, vs. Packers, vs. Cowboys, at Rams, vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3), NFC South leaders: You can afford to drop two of three − and maybe four of five − if you’re in a division the Bucs have ruled since 2021. Remaining schedule: at Bills, at Rams, vs. Cardinals, vs. Saints, vs. Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins, vs. Panthers
5. Los Angeles Rams (7-2), wild card No. 1: Winners of four straight, all in dominant fashion, they have a strong case as the league’s best team at the moment. Yet a Week 3 loss at Lincoln Financial Field could come back to haunt them when the NFC playoff field is seeded. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Cardinals, vs. Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
6. Chicago Bears (6-3), wild card No. 2: They’ve won six of seven since an 0-2 start but have struggled to beat seemingly weaker teams − as happened Sunday against the Giants. Big test Sunday in the Twin Cities. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Steelers, at Eagles, at Packers, vs. Browns, vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs. Lions
7. Green Bay Packers (5-3-1), wild card No. 3: Costly loss to Philly, which dropped the Pack out of the NFC North lead and nearly out of the projected playoff field altogether. They head to Week 11 just percentage points ahead of the 49ers (6-4). Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Vikings, at Lions, vs. Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens, at Vikings
