NFL playoff picture: NFC, AFC both have new projected No. 1 seeds
Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 4.
Here’s where things stand with Week 12 nearly complete:
AFC playoff picture
1. New England Patriots (10-2), AFC East leaders: Sunday’s narrow defeat of the Bengals gave the Pats the league’s best record, moving them past Denver and into the conference’s top spot. Good chance they hold onto it when they hit their off week. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
2. Denver Broncos (9-2), AFC West leaders: Being idle Sunday cost them first place in the conference, but you can bet the break was welcome − especially for a team that will need to be close to fully charged for a brutal four-game stretch at the end of its regular season. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3), AFC South leaders: They’ve dropped two of three to fall off the conference pace … and are now only one game ahead of Jacksonville and two better than Houston in the division. The next two weeks could be crucial. Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Jaguars, at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5), AFC North leaders: They sleepwalked past the Jets on Sunday … but past Pittsburgh and into first place by virtue of a better record in divisional games − and the Ravens will play in three more over the next three weeks. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, vs. Steelers, at Bengals, vs. Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), wild card No. 1: They needed the week off … and Buffalo’s loss allowed the battered Bolts to gain ground. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4), wild card No. 2: Wins over the Chiefs and Chargers could serve them well when it’s time to sort out tiebreakers. Winning at Arizona? Not so much. But despite beating the Bolts, the Jags check in behind them because LA’s 6-2 record in AFC games gives it precedence in the current three-way wild-card tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Colts, vs. Jets, at Broncos, vs. Colts, at Titans
7. Buffalo Bills (7-4), wild card No. 3: QB Josh Allen took a beating − as did the Bills’ hopes of catching the Patriots in the AFC East race. Now 4-3 in conference games, Buffalo fell behind the Chargers and Jags in the wild-card seeding, too. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, vs. Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5), in the hunt: Sunday’s loss at Chicago dropped them from first place in the AFC North all the way out of the field. Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Ravens, vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, vs. Ravens
9. Houston Texans (6-5), in the hunt: They’ve won four of five, including three in a row without injured QB C.J. Stroud. If they want to win the AFC South for a third straight year, the Texans likely need to sweep the Colts while continuing their surge … but the pieces are falling into place for a late charge to the top. Remaining schedule: at Colts, at Chiefs, vs. Cardinals, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, vs. Colts
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5), in the hunt: Their nine-year run atop the AFC West appears practically over. Still plenty of time to recover otherwise − and maybe that began Sunday vs. Indy − for a team that’s never missed the AFC championship game since Patrick Mahomes became the QB1 in 2018. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Texans, vs. Chargers, at Titans, vs. Broncos, at Raiders
NFC playoff picture
1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2), NFC West leaders: While Philly owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, it doesn’t matter now that the Rams have the better record in the aftermath of the Eagles’ demise Sunday. Still, LA has scant breathing room between itself and the Seahawks plus 49ers in the division. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Cardinals, vs. Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3), NFC East leaders: Sunday’s collapse likely won’t cost them the division. But it did drop them behind the Rams and served as another worrisome potential harbinger for the defending champs. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Chargers, vs. Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, vs. Commanders
3. Chicago Bears (8-3), NFC North leaders: They’ve won eight of nine since an 0-2 start to stunningly take over first place in the division. An inferior record (5-2) in NFC games keeps Chicago behind the Eagles. Remaining schedule: at Eagles, at Packers, vs. Browns, vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs. Lions
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5), NFC South leaders: Their divisional lead over Carolina is gone, but the Bucs’ 2-1 record in NFC South games is a half-game better than the Panthers’. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Saints, vs. Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins, vs. Panthers
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-3), wild card No. 1: All three of the ‘Hawks’ losses are against NFC opponents, including two in the division − defeats that won’t serve them well in the tiebreaker department. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Falcons, vs. Colts, vs. Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers
6. Green Bay Packers (7-3-1), wild card No. 2: Sunday’s win over Minnesota was their most convincing in weeks. But there’s little time to celebrate with a Thanksgiving date at Detroit next. Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens, at Vikings
7. San Francisco 49ers (7-4), wild card No. 3: Maybe the Niners can start building some momentum with QB1 Brock Purdy back in the lineup. Monday night’s game against Carolina comes with high stakes. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, at Browns, BYE, vs. Titans, at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
8. Detroit Lions (7-4), in the hunt: They’re even with the Niners record-wise, though an inferior record in NFC games (4-3) keeps them on the outside for now. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Cowboys, at Rams, vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears
9. Carolina Panthers (6-5), in the hunt: In addition to breathing down the backs of the Bucs, they’re only a game back of the Niners for the final NFC wild-card spot. Winners of six of nine, the Panthers only have one win against a team (Green Bay) currently above .500. Get another Monday night in Silicon Valley, and they’ll move atop the NFC South. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Rams, BYE, at Saints, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers
10. Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1), in the hunt: Two wins in a row continues to fuel hope in Big D. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, at Lions, vs. Vikings, vs. Chargers, at Commanders, at Giants
