Lincoln Riley, USC face tipping point against No. 15 Michigan
- USC and coach Lincoln Riley face a critical stretch of their season with upcoming games against Michigan and Notre Dame.
- One of college football’s highest-paid coaches, Riley has a 4-11 record against ranked opponents at USC.
- The upcoming slate could determine the team’s postseason fate and shape the narrative of Riley’s tenure in Los Angeles.
LOS ANGELES — As the cooling fall temperatures start making their way in The Golden State, the heat is turning up in the city of angels.
After starting the season with a modest schedule that led to a massive gut punch in a last-second loss to Illinois, Southern California enters a pivotal stretch of the year.
Hosting Michigan in a Big Ten battle of college football blue bloods. Then the trip to South Bend, Indiana, to play Notre Dame in what could determine the postseason fate of the loser.
It’s time to put up or shut up for the Trojans. More importantly, time for Lincoln Riley to prove he’s the guy makes $11.5 million this season, one of the highest-paid coaches in the sport.
“These are special games,” Riley said. “These are games that you remember. These are games that provide great opportunities for players, for fans, for everyone. I think you embrace it.”
Lincoln Riley struggles against ranked opponents at USC
With the pressure cooker turned on high to start 2025 after a middling Big Ten debut that ended in a 7-6 record, Riley’s squad looked like what Trojan fans expected in the first four games of the season. Breaking the scoreboard, throwing the ball all over the field, highlight plays en route to dominant victories.
But it’s USC. That’s expected when Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue and Michigan State are on the schedule and you put up 210 combined points. It’s the ranked matchups, the high-profile games where USC expects to win and return as a national power.
At Oklahoma, Riley had a knack for winning the most important contests of the season, and what moved him toward the top coaches in the country. He was 15-6 against ranked opponents in five seasons in Norman, a key to the three College Football Playoff appearances.
Riley entered this season 4-10 against ranked opponents, with no wins against a team in the top 10.
The first opportunity to flip the script came at then-No. 23 Illinois. Facing a ranked opponent, the Trojans rallied to take a late lead. But the same issues as last season appeared, with USC unable to hold onto the lead as the Illini made a last-second field goal.
Make it 4-11 against ranked opponents, and if USC has any hopes of contending for more than just a bowl game, those numbers have to change.
‘The hay is not in the barn’
Fortunes can change when No. 15 Michigan visits Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, Oct. 11 for the first time since 1957. The two power schools have played several times in the Rose Bowl, but USC is 0-3 against the Wolverines during the regular season.
Last season’s meeting wound up being a critical moment for the Trojans. They went into Ann Arbor and were close to a 3-0 start before the Wolverines scored a last minute touchdown. That game set the season off course, as USC went 4-6 the rest of the regular season.
The Week 7 matchup will test whether USC is legit. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is averaging 338 passing yards per game, third-most in FBS, leading an offense that scores 48.4 points per game. Makai Lemon’s 589 receiving yards are second-most in the country.
The high-powered offense will face a Michigan defense that’s top 20 in the country, exceptional in creating turnovers and sacking the quarterback. Plus, Justice Hayes leads a strong Michigan running game that will test if USC’s defense has taken steps forward.
“Fired up,” Maiava said about the matchup. “This team’s ready. It’s been ready. Super good team we’re about to go play. Can’t wait.”
A win is paramount to Riley’s credibility as an elite coach and the Trojans’s fate. Beat Michigan and Notre Dame next week and something special could be brewing, with trips to Nebraska and Oregon looming in November. Lose to the Wolverines and Fighting Irish, and that luxurious seat Riley occupies will feel warmer.
USC looks good, but as new starting center J’Onre Reed puts it, “the hay is not in the barn.” There’s still plenty the Trojans must prove.
Time for Riley to step up to the plate. It’s moments like this that form legacies, and he can reclaim his story in the critical stretch of his USC tenure.
“This is what we wait all freaking year for games like this, for opportunities like this,” Riley said. “We’re gonna prepare our ass off and go play.”
