How will Week 12 affect NFL playoff picture?

With seven weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL season, the playoff contenders are coming into sharp focus. More than half of the teams in the league now have overwhelming probabilities of making or missing the postseason.

At top, nine teams have 90% chances or better of earning one of the 14 playoff slots, according to Next Gen Stats’ playoff probabilities. Nine other teams have 1% or less chance of making the playoffs. That said, none of those teams are mathematically eliminated.

Two teams on opposite ends of the playoff spectrum kick off Week 12 schedule on Thursday night’s Prime Video game at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) fresh off their two-point win over AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens travel to Cleveland to play the Browns (2-8). The Steelers are favored by just about field goal, according to BetMGM as of Thursday morning.

NFL playoff picture and NFL standings

Here are all 32 teams’ chances of making the playoffs this season and how a win or loss this weekend would raise or lower those chances, according to Next Gen Stats:

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The Steelers aren’t the only team this week with a chance to solidify their playoff chances at top of the bracket. A half dozen games will pit some of the most and least likely playoff teams with the least likely, according to Next Gen Stats. Three of this weekend’s games with a broad range of playoff impacts:

◾ Kansas City Chiefs 9-1 at Panthers 3-7: Even if the Chiefs extend their losing streak to two in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday game on CBS, neither team will alter their chances of making the playoffs by winning or losing. BetMGM odds: Chiefs by 11 points.

◾ Baltimore Ravens 7-4 at Los Angeles Chargers 7-3: Both teams have more than a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Regardless of the outcome of the Monday night football game, both will remain top AFC contenders. The Chargers could strengthen their playoff probabilities the most with a win. BetMGM odds: Ravens by three points.

◾ Arizona Cardinals 6-4 at Seattle Seahawks 5-5: With a fifth-consecutive win in the 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday game on FOX, the Cardinals could extend their lead in the NFC West and boost their playoff chances. With a loss, the Seahawks’ playoffs hopes would take an 11 percentage point leap, according to Next Gen Stats. BetMGM odds: Even.