Expert predictions for College Football Playoff games on Saturday
Ten years after the first College Football Playoff, we finally get the full experience of an expanded field of 12. Instead of just two semifinals and a championship game, we get three games spread across a 12-hour window that will serve as the first step in deciding a national champion.
The Big Ten will serve as the host location of two games. Penn State fans will welcome SMU with a white out in the stands and there may also be some snow that welcomes the Mustangs. Ohio State hosts Tennessee with the Buckeyes looking to put a loss to Michigan behind them.
The game sandwiched between those two sees Clemson travel to Texas. The Longhorns, like Ohio State, lost their last game before the playoff, while the Tigers enter with the momentum of winning the ACC title two weeks ago against SMU.
The winners will head to the quarterfinals over the New Year’s Day bowls to face a team that has been at home for the first round. But those concerns are for another time. Who are the teams advancing? Our experts weigh in on each of the games Saturday.
SMU at Penn State
Scooby Axson: SMU’s resume was questioned all season, so the Mustangs just don’t want to show up in the playoffs. Their opponent, Penn State, has been a hard-luck loser in big games in recent years. But one thing’s for sure: the Nittany Lions better hope and pray that starting quarterback Drew Allar stays upright and healthy. Penn State 21, SMU 14.
Jordan Mendoza: There’s been plenty of talk about how much of a home-field advantage Penn State will have, but you have to remember this is a Nittany Lions team that continuously fails to win big games. People questioned whether Southern Methodist belonged in the playoff, and the Mustangs defense causes fits for Drew Allar and company. SMU 27, Penn State 23.
Paul Myerberg: The big key for SMU is whether the Mustangs can protect Kevin Jennings enough to push the ball downfield. If not, it’ll be on Jennings to make things happen with his legs and extend plays. That might be a recipe for one or two explosive plays but it’s not the recipe for an upset. The Nittany Lions can control the line of scrimmage and move into the quarterfinals against Boise State. Penn State 31, SMU 21.
Erick Smith: Even without the advantage of cold weather and more than 100,000 fans cheering for them, the Nittany Lions would be too physical and too good on defense for SMU. Factor in all of those things, and it’ll be a surprise if the Mustangs can hang close for four quarters. Kevin Jennings does have tremendous ability to disrupt defenses but the SMU quarterback can’t do it all on his own. Just too much Penn State depth for an upset to happen. Penn State 31, SMU 17.
Eddie Timanus: The Mustangs showed a lot of fight in their near comeback against Clemson, but falling behind early again on the road would be ill-advised. The Nittany Lions have been slow out of the gate themselves a time or two, but not on their home field. SMU won’t make it easy, but PSU will survive and advance. Penn State 34, SMU 20.
Dan Wolken: Penn State is better equipped to win a low-possession battle, but the Mustangs are going to win the tempo war and pull a mild upset. Kevin Jennings’ second half performance in the ACC championship game, although it ultimately came up short, was a revelation. He’ll be able to improvise against a pretty decent Penn State defense. SMU 34, Penn State 31.
UNSUNG HEROES: Which non-stars could lift teams to first-round wins?
MOVING ON: Ranking the best college quarterbacks in the transfer portal
Clemson at Texas, 4 p.m. ET, TNT
Scooby Axson: The difference in this one will be evident as the game gets along in the latter stages. Texas will use its dominant offensive and defensive lines to control the line of scrimmage, making life difficult for Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and allowing the running game to flourish. His counterpart, Quinn Ewers, makes enough plays to send the Longhorns to the next round. Texas 34, Clemson 15.
Jordan Mendoza: Texas’ offense needs to get rolling after it struggled to end the season. What helps is the Longhorns defense forces plenty of mistakes to set the offense up to score. Quinn Ewers is able to hold off the noise surrounding people’s desire to see Arch Manning take over the quarterback duties. Texas 34, Clemson 17.
Paul Myerberg: Clemson makes things a little messy for Texas and Quinn Ewers, but the Longhorns have way too much talent to lose at home to the No. 12 seed. Texas has the defense to totally shut down Cade Klubnik and the Tigers, so avoiding the upset means avoiding any costly turnovers or meltdowns on special teams. Texas 27, Clemson 13.
Erick Smith: The biggest spread of the first round is also the biggest mismatch. Credit to Clemson to making it here. But nothing the Tigers showed in the regular season indicates they are capable of a road win against one of the most-balanced teams in the playoff. Yes, the Longhorns could self-destruct with turnovers and open the door for an upset. It seems unlikely, however. Texas 31, Clemson 14.
Eddie Timanus: The good news for the Tigers is they’re still the toughest out in the ACC. The bad news is they’re 0-2 against SEC competition. Look for a crisper outing from the Longhorns in this one. Texas 28, Clemson 13.
Dan Wolken: It’s hard to envision how Clemson is going to generate anything in the running game against arguably the nation’s best defense. Maybe the Tigers win by hitting some big plays down the field, but most likely it’s going to be too tough of a slog. There are offensive concerns about Texas the deeper they get into the bracket, but defense will be enough in this one. Texas 20, Clemson 10.
Tennessee at Ohio State, 8 p.m., ET, ESPN
Scooby Axson: The fact that Ryan Day isn’t going to lose his job no matter what the outcome should be a sigh of relief for Ohio State, and if he wanted to escape with a win, he would force-feed his receivers the ball because there isn’t a secondary in the nation that can keep up with them. But somehow, Ohio State will let the Volunteers hang around and make it interesting longer than necessary. Ohio State 34, Tennessee 30.
Jordan Mendoza: Yes it is win or go home, but Ohio State absolutely needs this game. Ryan Day’s job depends on it. Look for offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to get creative to establish momentum early. While Tennessee makes a late charge, the Volunteers fall just short of pulling off the upset. Will the Buckeye fans be happy after a close win? Tough to tell. Ohio State 24, Tennessee 23.
Paul Myerberg: The game of the opening round pits two similar teams. Tennessee’s defense is title-worthy. But can Nico Iamaleava continue his strong play from the final two weeks of the regular season? If so, the Volunteers will be the one road team to move on. Ohio State is a bit of a safer bet even if the Buckeyes were last seen getting dominated (again) by rival Michigan. Ohio State 24, Tennessee 23.
Erick Smith: Supporting Ohio State here feels like the famous saying: ‘Trick me once, shame on you. Trick me twice, shame on me.’ But sometimes you are a sucker for a redemption arc. This will be that moment for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. Tennessee has been stagnant on the road against quality opponents, and at some point Ohio State’s offense will take charge. Or the trick is on us. Ohio State 27, Tennessee 14.
Eddie Timanus: This might prove to be a rare case of home-field disadvantage. The longer the Vols hang around, the more agitated the Buckeyes’ crowd will become, and that will be passed on to the team. Tennessee will make the plays with the game on the line and cause an offseason of angst in Columbus. Tennessee 23, Ohio State 16.
Dan Wolken: This looks like the best matchup of the first round, and the difference is probably going to be as simple as home-field advantage. With a few weeks to recalibrate after the embarrassment against Michigan, the Buckeyes will feel less pressure this time around and look more like a focused national championship contender against an outstanding defensive team. Ohio State 23, Tennessee 17.
