ECB’s Kazimir: increasingly confident in disinflation path

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Euro zone inflation is increasingly likely to return to target next year but a bit more evidence is needed before the European Central Bank can declare victory, Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir said on Monday.

Kazimir, an outspoken conservative, was one of the few policymakers to openly express doubt about the need to cut rates this month, but he relented and eventually supported the move, the third policy easing step this year.

“If new data and forecasts confirm an accelerated pace in disinflation, we will be in a strong and comfortable position to continue the easing cycle,” Kazimir said in a blog post.

Kazimir also argued that the ECB was waiting for more evidence and until then, it had to keep an open mind about December and leave all options on the table.

“I’m increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing,” Kazimir said. “But the doubting Thomas in me still needs to see further proof of a sustainable return to target.”

Markets currently expect the ECB to cut at each of its coming meetings through next March or even April, and for the 3.25% deposit rate to hit 2% sometime next year.

But Kazimir also warned that the long-awaited decline in wage growth and services inflation has yet to materialise and the ECB should await actual evidence of this happening before declaring victory.

“If new information points in the direction of higher inflation (risks), we can still slow down the pace at which we remove restrictions in the coming meetings,” he said.