Data needs to keep delivering if this S&P 500 market rally is to continue
Investing.com — Barclays strategists have become more confident in the likelihood of a U.S. soft landing over the past several weeks, mainly thanks to the Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis point rate cut, signaling their support for growth, and unexpected stimulus measures from China.
However, with the S&P 500 trading at 5,700 and equities at high levels, they caution that the margin for error is slim, meaning economic data “needs to keep delivering.”
In that light, the upcoming Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday is seen as crucial, with Barclays’ economists predicting a September figure of around 150,000, a slight increase from August.
“The potential resiliency in the labor market and Fed’s willingness to support it means that US growth remains healthy and forecasts continue to see upward revisions,” they noted.
Meanwhile, Europe’s growth outlook appears weaker, despite the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) starting their rate-cutting cycles earlier than the Fed.
Economic surprises have recently turned positive in the U.S., while Europe continues to experience declining activity.
Interestingly, though bond markets in the U.S. and Europe both turned more dovish over the summer, the U.S. market implies a greater number of future rate cuts compared to Europe.
September’s jobs report is expected to mirror the one for August, reflecting a continued slowdown in hiring and modest wage growth.
Like Barclays, consensus estimates expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 150,000, up slightly from 142,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Wages are forecasted to increase by 0.3% for the month and 3.8% annually, matching the rate from the previous month.
If the data meets expectations, it would provide the Fed with the flexibility to continue reducing interest rates without the pressure of falling behind or triggering a recession.
