CFP rankings put Big Ten on notice with a warning shot at Oregon

• Oregon’s in potential trouble. So is the Big Ten’s quest to stockpile CFP bids. That’s the message sent in these first rankings.
• Oregon beat Penn State. Big deal. Metrics are lacking for No. 9 Ducks.
• Could Big 12 get as many bids as Big Ten? Not off the table.

The Ducks might be a quack, wearing fancy jerseys with a swoosh.

That’s the message the College Football Playoff committee sent by stiffing Oregon with the No. 9 spot in its initial rankings.

Or, at least, the committee paid attention to strength of record and strength of schedule metrics that say Oregon possesses flimsier credentials than any of the SEC’s one-loss teams.

The committee nailed it.

What’s Oregon done? Beat Penn State. Get in line. So did Northwestern and UCLA.

Thanks for nothing, Big Game James. The Ducks own no wins against teams currently ranked.

“When you looked at Oregon, great players at the skill position,” CFP committee chairman Mack Rhoades said on ESPN, “felt that they’re really, really good up front, both sides of the ball, their one loss is to our 2-ranked team” Indiana.

Blah, blah, blah, that loosely translates to: Oregon might be a good ballclub, has some talent, but, sorry, the resume’s flimsy.

Zoom out from Oregon’s ranking, and behold the broader message baked into these rankings. Let this warning blare like a tornado siren all across the North and down into SoCal: The almighty Big Ten, producer of the past two national champions, is in danger of being limited to two bids.

No wonder commissioner Tony Petitti desperately wanted to rig the playoff bracket.

The committee sees the Big Ten for what it is — and that’s a league headed up by two teams that look spectacular, and behind Ohio State and Indiana, it’s a bowl of cold porridge. Just a lumpy, flavorless glob.

CFP rankings introduce idea of a two-bid Big Ten, if Oregon falters

You say the Big Ten’s got the nation’s top two teams. I say those could be its only teams in a 12-team bracket.

Oregon plays at Iowa this weekend, and they’re calling for a rainy, chilly day. Think it might be just a bit breezy, too? That’s Hawkeye weather. If the Ducks lose, that’ll send them tumbling, putting the Big Ten in danger of having just two teams in the updated bracket when our TV show we love to hate but can’t look away from returns next week.

Look, Oregon’s still got plenty of runway to shoot up the rankings. Its defense is stingy, albeit not as stingy as Ohio State’s or Indiana’s and no stingier than Iowa’s. Its offense posts gains in 20-yard chunks.

Along with Iowa, Oregon’s November schedule includes Southern California and Washington. That totals three ranked opponents, with two on the road. Unranked Minnesota is no gimme putt.

Make? Or, break?

Soggy Big Ten works just fine for Ohio State, Indiana

What a difference a year (and a new committee chair) makes.

Michigan’s Warde Manuel, an athletic director from B1G country, chaired the previous committee. Rhoades, the newest chairman, is Baylor’s athletic director. And, would you look at that? The Big 12 is suddenly getting some respect, after last year’s committee treated it like the Mountain West’s cousin.

Three Big 12 teams are ranked within the top 13 spots, including one-loss Texas Tech being a spot ahead of Oregon.

Tired: Nike money.

Wired: Big oil money! And a billionaire booster who keeps hogging your airwaves!

Aside from Cody Campbell’s checkbook, the Red Raiders’ case gets helped by their loss coming while their starting quarterback was out injured.

The brass tacks add up to Oregon potentially being vulnerable if it finished 10-2, especially if Notre Dame keeps winning and the Big 12 snags two bids, as it’s positioned to do.

In defense of Oregon, it suffered some bad strength of schedule luck. Unlike some Big Ten brethren, the Ducks scheduled a Power Four opponent. It’s just that Oklahoma State stinks, reducing Oregon’s credit for a 66-point victory. No boost for beating woebegone Oregon State, either.

Oregon’s not the Big Ten’s only hope for a third qualifier. Iowa and USC remain playoff contenders. They’ll all play each other, in a three-team battle royale that could amount to an elimination-fest for the Big Ten. Ohio State will snuff out Michigan’s hopes, so long as Ryan Day doesn’t fall into old habits.

Ohio State and Indiana must be loving this. The Big Ten’s soggy secondary and tertiary tiers are a feature, not a bug, to their quest to lock up the playoff’s top seeds.

Back at Big Ten HQ, Petitti must be wondering if there’s still a way to rig this thing.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.