Bowl projections: Texas enters College Football Playoff field
- The SEC and Big Ten are expected to dominate the seven at-large spots.
- The ACC’s chances for multiple bids decreased after losses by Louisville and Virginia.
- Texas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt are competing for the final SEC spot in the playoff field.
Perhaps this College Football Playoff picture that seemed so murky is surprisingly finding some clarity with three weeks still to go in the season.
It’s a matter of match with the results of Week 11 helping. There’s seven at-large spots and it’s hard to see more than one spot going to leagues outside the SEC and Big Ten.
The ACC is a beautiful mess but it’s likelihood of getting two teams in the field was significantly diminished by Louisville and Virginia falling Saturday. Georgia Tech is a possibility if it winning its last three games, including a defeat of Georgia, and then misses out on the conference title.
The Big 12 could get a second team in should Texas Tech and Brigham Young win out to set up a rematch in Arlington, Texas. The Cougars do remain in the projected field for now with a game at Cincinnati looming but we will keep them in the field for now.
This is where the math comes in. There’s still six at-large spots to award. Oregon and either Ohio State and Indiana will likely be in from the Big Ten. It’s hard to see either Southern California or Michigan having a chance unless they were to beat the Ducks or Buckeyes, respectively.
That leaves four spots for the SEC and there’s a host of worthy candidates. You can pretty much write Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi in the field barring a major surprise with one of the quartet being conference champion.
That leaves Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas fighting for one spot. The Longhorns own wins against both of the other two, giving them the inside track as long as they split games against Georgia and Texas A&M. The Sooners could upset that scenario but it would require them to win out against Alabama, Missouri and LSU.
So for now, we are moving Texas into the field and will cross out fingers that not much changes to alter our cleared-up picture.
Bowl projections after college football Week 11
Notes: Legacy Pac-12 schools in other conferences will fulfill existing Pac-12 bowl agreements through the 2025 season. Not all conferences will fulfill their bowl allotment. An asterisk represents a replacement pick.
