Big banks see 25bps Fed rate cut this week, pace to slow in 2025
Investing.com — Investors widely anticipate that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its December 17-18 meeting. However, much of the market’s attention will likely center on the updated economic projections set to accompany the decision.
These projections will offer fresh insight into how far Fed officials expect to cut rates through 2025 and potentially into 2026.
Policymakers face a complex environment shaped by persistently high inflation, robust labor market conditions, a US election outcome that could alter global trade and immigration policies, and heightened geopolitical risks.
Given the breadth of factors to consider, many analysts expect the tone of the Fed’s commentary—encompassing its policy statement, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, and the updated forecasts—to lean slightly hawkish.
The Fed may signal a reduced willingness to commit to further rate cuts or suggest it is nearing the end of its easing cycle compared to its stance earlier this year.
What big banks expect from Fed at December meeting and beyond
In recent days, several major Wall Street banks have shared their views on the Fed’s December meeting and the anticipated policy path ahead. Here’s a look at some of their key insights.
Citi: “A rate cut is very likely on Wednesday at 2pm and nearly fully priced by markets that just weeks ago had placed significant probability on the Fed pausing cuts at this meeting. Now markets expect a pause in January, assuming that Fed officials will be worried disinflation has stalled above target. Chair Powell will want to keep all options open, neither ruling-in nor ruling-out a cut at the next FOMC meeting.
“The median dot is likely to show three rather than four 25bp rate cuts next year, but we expect Powell to emphasize that the rate path is uncertain and data dependent.”
JPMorgan: “At the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting we expect the Committee will lower the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4.25-4.5%. We don’t look for major changes in the statement language or the forward guidance, even though we still think a pause is likely at the January meeting. We think that the economic forecasts will show better growth and firmer inflation this year, and that the median interest rate forecast dots will be revised to show three cuts next year instead of four, as in the September dots. We believe the longer-run median dot could move up to around 3% or slightly higher.”
UBS: “We expect the FOMC lowers the funds rate by 25 bps at the December FOMC meeting, then does not lower rates at the January FOMC meeting, but resumes lowering rates at the March FOMC meeting. Essentially they shift to a quarterly pace. We are skeptical that lasts for very long. Between that March 2025 rate cut and September 2025, we expect another labor market slowdown scare.”
Goldman Sachs: “The FOMC is likely to lower the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4.25-4.5% on Wednesday. We expect the main message of the December meeting to be that the FOMC anticipates that it will likely slow the pace of rate cuts going forward, and we have revised our forecast for 2025 to eliminate a cut in January. We continue to expect cuts in March, June, and September next year, and now expect a slightly higher terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%.”
