Backdrop for US equities “constructive” ahead of latest earnings season – UBS
Investing.com — The backdrop for US equities remains constructive heading into the third-quarter earnings season, according to analysts at UBS.
In a note to clients, the bank’s strategists said stocks on Wall Street have been bolstered by a “healthy” economic picture and solid profit growth.
Signs of cooling inflationary pressures, which have partly prompted the Federal Reserve to begin slashing interest rates down from more than two-decade highs, were also cited as a factor underpinning in results.
The outlook for corporate spending on artificial intelligence — a key topic for markets for much of this year — and monetization of the nascent technology both remain strong as well, the UBS analysts argued.
Frothy valuations have proven to be one point of concern for some investors despite the stable economic background. The benchmark S&P 500‘s has a forward price to earnings ratio of 21.5, based on earnings estimates over the next 12 months.
However, the UBS analysts said they believe valuations are still “reasonable”, noting that “things like earnings trends are much more important, and we think those will remain supportive.”
“Overall, we think earnings results will confirm that the outlook for corporate profit growth remains healthy,” the analysts wrote. “This would be consistent with the recent easing in bank lending standards, which tends to be a good leading indicator for profit growth.”
Earnings per share growth for the S&P 500 is tipped to be between 5% to 7% in the third quarter, the UBS analysts predicted. Excluding energy stocks, which have been hit by weaker oil and gas prices, the figure is seen at 8% to 10%.
Profit expansion is seen broadening out beyond the mega-cap growth stocks known as the “Magnificent 7”, although these companies — which include tech titans like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) — remain on track to post over a 20% increase in income in the third quarter, the analysts said.
Meanwhile, they reiterated their price targets for the S&P 500 of 5,900 and 6,200 for December 2024 and June 2025, respectively. The average closed at 5,815.03 on Friday.
