February 4, 2026

Women’s basketball bracketology: SEC on track to own top 16 seeds

When the opening weekend of the women’s college basketball tournament gets underway in mid-March, ESPN will likely be sending the majority of its camera crews and on-air talent to the southeast region of the country.

That’s because, once again, the top half of the SEC is extremely good.

In USA Today Sports’ latest bracketology, seven SEC teams are projected to host as top 16 seeds and two teams — South Carolina and Texas — are on track to get No. 1 seeds for the second consecutive season. The other five teams projected to grab hosting rights are LSU, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Kentucky.

These seven teams have a combined 25 Quad 1 wins and are a combined 87-0 in Quad 3 and 4 games. Put more simply, they’ve beaten a great number of good teams and haven’t slipped when facing bad ones.

Combine the SEC’s dominance with projections that have Louisville, Duke and TCU hosting, March Madness will have 10 opening weekend locations that are east of the Rocky Mountains and below the Mason-Dixon Line.

While UConn looks like the best team in the sport and the Big Ten has flashed its dominance as well, many of the roads to the national championship will go through the South.

Here’s USA Today Sports’ projection of the top 16 seeds in the women’s NCAA Tournament as of Wednesday, Feb. 4:

1. UConn

2. UCLA

3. Texas

4. South Carolina

5. LSU

6. Michigan

7. Louisville

8. Vanderbilt

9. Iowa

10. Michigan State

11. TCU

12. Oklahoma

13. Duke

14. Ole Miss

15. Ohio State

16. Kentucky

In the hunt: Tennessee, Maryland, Baylor, West Virginia, North Carolina

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: Mississippi State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Villanova

Last Four In: Stanford, Utah, Clemson, Richmond

First Four Out: BYU, Virginia, Colorado, Fairfield

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, South Dakota State, Arizona State, Miami

Virginia Tech and Clemson both have opportunities on Thursday to boost their resume with Quad 1 wins on the road. The Tigers play the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, while the Hokies face Notre Dame in South Bend.

Both teams are playing well lately under coaches in their second season — Shawn Poppie’s Tigers have won six of their last eight and Meg Duffy’s Hokies have won seven in a row. Virginia Tech will have the chance to pick up another solid win on Sunday when it hosts NC State in a Quad 2 game, while Clemson simply needs to take care of business against a Boston College team that has lost 16 consecutive games.

Perhaps the bigger storyline here is Arizona State projected to be on the wrong side of the bubble after starting the year with 15 straight wins. Molly Miller’s Sun Devils are 3-5 since that streak ended. They have two Quad 3 losses and no Quad 1 wins, and are in need of a few resume boosters if they want to get into the field of 68 when Selection Sunday rolls around.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY