Mensah’s millions give Duke QB leverage over NFL
- Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is returning to college instead of entering the NFL Draft.
- Mensah will earn more money by staying at Duke than he likely would have as an NFL rookie.
- The decision highlights how private NIL deals are making college football competitive with the NFL for talent.
Darian Mensah finally pulled off what eventually had to happen, further underscoring a booming college football economy that isn’t slowing down.
An elite quarterback chose college football over the NFL. And will make more money because of it.
Mensah, who led Duke to its first outright ACC championship since 1962 in his first season after transferring from Tulane, will make — at the very least — the back half of a two-year, $8 million deal he signed prior to this season.
If Mensah were to leave for the NFL, he’d make half that or less for one season — depending on where he was selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Stay or go is no longer a professional decision. It’s now, in most cases, a monetary move.
Just when you think paradigm change over the past four years of college football couldn’t be more dramatic, we now have quarterbacks staying in college for more money than they’d earn in the NFL.
College football isn’t the NFL’s minor league. It’s now the NFL’s competition.
The last quarterback selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft was Jaxson Dart, who was the 25th overall pick and signed a four-year deal with the Giants averaging $4.2 million annually.
The first quarterback selected outside the first round was Tyler Shough, who was the 40th overall pick by the Saints and signed a four-year deal averaging $2.7 annually. The next selected was Jalen Milroe, 92nd overall by the Seahawks with a deal averaging $1.56 million annually.
Mensah, who more than likely would’ve been selected somewhere outside the first 50 picks, will earn $4 million by returning to Duke.
But that’s not the point of this exercise. The reality that Mensah will earn more in college football than the NFL, that he is choosing to delay playing at the highest level of football with a multi-year contract to stay in college, should tell you all you need to know about the flourishing private NIL economy.
The one area of unthinkable college football change the NCAA has no control over. And by no, I mean none.
Not with some special clearinghouse, or contrived czar, or play-nice agreement schools are refusing to sign. Private NIL is the heart of the college football economy, the only way to separate the haves from the have-nots.
You don’t really think the haves are going to sit there and take it, do you? They’re not going to nod their heads and spend 75% of their NCAA-mandated $20-23 million annual salary pool on football, and go along their merry way.
Because the elite of the elite players want more, and are they’re getting it through private NIL. It’s basic economics: supply and demand.
Ohio State overpaid for Quinshon Judkins and Will Howard and Caleb Downs, and won a national title because of it. Indiana outbid Georgia and Miami for Fernando Mendoza, and just polished off the first unbeaten regular season in school history.
Duke, meanwhile, won its first outright ACC title in more than six decades after overpaying Mensah. That’s return on investment, everyone.
A similar or marginally better revenue sharing deal isn’t convincing elite players to change schools. Private NIL deals are.
Players don’t have to stay at programs if they feel (take your pick) they’re not being developed properly, don’t have a chance to play for a championship, or just don’t like their situation.
Now they aren’t forced to leave college for the NFL, where the ability to earn was always the greatest draw — no matter what you read from players about taking their talents to (insert team here). Thanks, LeBron.
With that being said, of course.
Imagine the sheer power of telling the NFL no, and then picking up a larger paycheck because of it. And, bonus: Mensah, who has only played two seasons of college football — with at TD/INT ratio of 52/11 — can play another season and strengthen his draft stock.
Go bet on yourself, kid. Have another big season, make twice what you’d earn in the NFL, and then improve your draft stock for 2027. The next thing you know, you’ve moved into a first round projection and your rookie deal goes from seven figures to eight.
Quinn Ewers should’ve done it last season, and there will be more outside of Mensah who will do it this season. Brendan Sorsby and Sam Leavitt could leave for the NFL, and be selected in the first two days.
So could Ty Simpson and John Mateer and Nico Iamaleava. They’ll all make more — per season — in college football with private NIL deals. And that’s just at the quarterback position.
It’s a bear market for the elite of college football, and nothing is stopping it. Not contrived NCAA guidelines with no teeth, and not some document with no legal standing.
And no longer, as crazy as it sounds, the big, bad NFL.
