ECB minutes show officials leaning towards more rate cuts amid growth, inflation concerns

The European Central Bank (ECB) released the minutes of its December meeting, revealing a growing inclination towards monetary easing. The discussion mainly revolved around the necessity of rate cuts to stabilize inflation, with ECB staff projections indicating that achieving the forecasts would require rate reductions in line with market expectations.

The minutes highlighted an increasing easing bias, with the ECB concentrating on the pace of future rate cuts rather than their general necessity. The central bank also moved away from its strict 2.0% inflation target, now aiming for inflation to “stabilize sustainably at the target,” reflecting a shift in its communication strategy.

Concerns were raised regarding the optimism of growth forecasts in the staff projections. The baseline scenario, which anticipated unchanged trade policies and stronger foreign demand bolstering euro area exports, was considered potentially too positive given the unpredictable trade policies of key trading partners, particularly the United States.

The term “undershooting” was noted three times in the minutes, pointing to an increased likelihood of inflation falling short of the target if the economy fails to gain momentum.

The debate over the size of the rate cut was intense, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point reduction to provide insurance against the downside risks to growth that are exacerbated by global and domestic political uncertainties.

In summary, the ECB’s minutes from December underscore the central bank’s readiness to cut rates more swiftly to counter the risks of inflation undershooting and to address doubts about the growth outlook amid various uncertainties.

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