NFL playoff picture: Ravens climb, Chargers drop after ‘Harbaugh Bowl’

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 5.

Here’s where things stand with Week 12 of the 2024 season complete:

AFC playoff picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1), AFC West leaders: It wasn’t pretty – yet again – but they outlasted Carolina to extend their lead over Buffalo by a half game, though the Bills’ head-to-head tiebreaker advantage still means K.C. can’t afford to backslide at all right now – especially as the champs will be back in action on Black Friday. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos

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2. Buffalo Bills (9-2), AFC East leaders: Coming out of their break, they’ll draw a battered San Francisco squad at home as they seek a sixth consecutive victory. A fifth consecutive division title is practically a foregone conclusion, and Pittsburgh’s loss only solidified the Bills’ standing near the top of the conference. And, with that potentially pivotal tiebreaker against the Chiefs in hand, the Bills could soon steer the road to Super Bowl 59 through Western New York. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Rams, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3), AFC North leaders: A win at Cleveland on Thursday night would have vaulted them ahead of the Bills and into the No. 2 seed. Instead, the Steelers suffered a damaging loss – and to a divisional opponent no less – that could greatly hinder their ability to compete for home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

4. Houston Texans (7-5), AFC South leaders: Losers of four of six after falling at home to lowly Tennessee on Sunday, it’s starting to appear like they might back onto the throne of a bad division and be one-and-done once postseason starts. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, BYE, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4), wild card No. 1: Good as they (usually) are – including Monday night’s fairly convincing defeat of the Chargers in ‘Harbaugh Bowl III’ – losses to the wrong teams could well mean no home playoff games this season. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, BYE, at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), wild card No. 2: They’re starting to look like the NFL’s Hoosiers, better competition amplifying their flaws – say, perhaps, a somewhat overrated defense, youngsters still not quite ready for prime time (WR Quentin Johnston) and a run game that may now be without injured RB J.K. Dobbins. Still, these Bolts have a lot of Charger-ing to do in order to drop out of the field. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (7-5), wild card No. 3: Their hold on the AFC’s last berth continues to harden and should continue to do so in the coming weeks … unless they manage to jump the Chargers. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, BYE, vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Miami Dolphins (5-6), in the hunt: As QB Tua Tagovailoa goes, so go the Fins – and the whole operation is heating up after a third consecutive win Sunday. However a team that tends to struggle in cold climes must play at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Remaining schedule: at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets

9. Indianapolis Colts (5-7), in the hunt: They’re starting to lose sight of Denver and the final wild-card slot after Sunday’s setback, though they’ll get a shot at them in the Mile High City soon enough. But that could be moot now that the Colts have been jumped by the Dolphins. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, BYE, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), in the hunt: Soul-crushing losses in their previous two games might be too much to overcome. Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Cowboys, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers

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NFC playoff picture

1. Detroit Lions (10-1), NFC North leaders: They labored a bit Sunday at Indianapolis and could be short-handed on the injury front given the quick turnaround to their annual Thanksgiving game. Yet no need to panic at this juncture, especially as they settle in for a three-game homestand. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2), NFC East leaders: They’re officially a clear and present danger to Detroit and might run away, a la RB Saquon Barkley, with this division. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Panthers, vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5), NFC West leaders: No team had a better Sunday, the ‘Hawks jumping from ninth-place also-rans to division front-runners after knocking off the Cards. Wins over Arizona and Atlanta jump Seattle into this spot. Remaining schedule: at Jets, at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5), NFC South leaders: They dropped a seed on their week off. A season sweep of the Bucs effectively gives Atlanta a two-game lead in the division, but the Falcons have no such edge on the suddenly surging Saints. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2), wild card No. 1: They’re winning ugly – including Sunday’s overtime escape at Chicago – but have also won four straight. It may not seem like Vikes are a threat to win their division, yet they’re only one game back of Detroit in the NFC North. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

6. Green Bay Packers (8-3), wild card No. 2: After handling the depleted Niners, the Pack also remain relevant in the NFC North. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (7-5), wild card No. 3: Ambushed by the Cowboys, that’s three losses in a row for a team that needs to get its mojo back if it’s going to hold off the horde of lurking NFC West wannabes … who aren’t far from becoming could-bes. They can just about forget any thoughts of winning the NFC East. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, BYE, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5), in the hunt: Their four-game win streak – and division lead – went up in smoke at Seattle on Sunday. Key games the next two weeks. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6), in the hunt: Their four-game slide now in the rearview after embarrassing the Giants, the opportunity is there to have a strong finishing kick, one that already vaulted them up from 11th place Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6), in the hunt: They weren’t competitive Sunday night against Philly. A Week 3 win over San Francisco keeps them ahead of the Niners for now, but an inferior conference record drops them behind the Bucs. Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Bills, at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6), in the hunt: The talent is still here, there’s just not enough of it on the field right now − as was obvious Sunday in Green Bay. And they’re back in a cold-weather environment in Week 13. Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals

12. New Orleans Saints (4-7), in the hunt: They’re 2-0 under interim HC Darren Rizzi. And given the way the NFC South is compressing, don’t count them out. A 3-4 record in NFC games pushes them ahead of Chicago and Dallas. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Giants, vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers

13. Chicago Bears (4-7), in the hunt: A five-game skid means they’re just about done – maybe well done by the time Thanksgiving in Detroit is over. A slightly better mark in conference matchups currently gives them an edge on Dallas. Remaining schedule: at Lions, at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers

14. Dallas Cowboys (4-7), in the hunt: Hand it to Mike McCarthy’s crew – they’re not dying easy, when it would be quite easy at this point, to do exactly that. (Reference the Giants, Dallas’ Thanksgiving opponent.) Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, vs. Bengals, at Panthers, vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Commanders

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