NFL playoff picture: Chiefs’ loss adds intrigue to AFC field

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 5.

Here’s where things stand with Week 11 of the 2024 season nearly complete:

AFC playoff picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1), AFC West leaders: Their first loss of the year could be a significant one, the Bills now only needing to make up one more game on the reigning Super Bowl champs to take over the top spot. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos

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2. Buffalo Bills (9-2), AFC East leaders: They’ve won six straight after toppling K.C. and a fifth consecutive division title is practically a foregone conclusion. And, with that potentially pivotal head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, the Bills could soon steer the road to Super Bowl 59 through Western New York. Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. 49ers, at Rams, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2), AFC North leaders: Their defeat of the Ravens gives them breathing room atop the division and makes them a viable threat to secure home-field advantage, too. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Bengals, vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

4. Houston Texans (6-4), AFC South leaders: They’ve got a few issues to work through, primarily those that are injury related. But they should still cruise to a second straight division championship. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Titans, at Jaguars, BYE, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3), wild card No. 1: Their defense has been pretty tough. Their schedule has been anything but – though that began changing Sunday night. Still, the Bolts are starting to build a nice pad between themselves and the clubs chasing them – and even moved ahead of next week’s opponent, Baltimore. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Falcons, at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4), wild card No. 2: Good as they are, losses to the wrong teams could well mean no home playoff games this season. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, vs. Eagles, BYE, at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

7. Denver Broncos (6-5), wild card No. 3: They didn’t take their hooves off the gas Sunday against Atlanta and can’t do in a larger sense as they try to hang onto this spot. Remaining schedule: at Raiders, vs. Browns, BYE, vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (5-6), in the hunt: They’ll get key a shot at the Broncos down the road. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Patriots, BYE, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars

9. Miami Dolphins (4-6), in the hunt: They’re building steam and jumped Cincy with Sunday’s win. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), in the hunt: Crushing losses the last two weeks might be too much to overcome. Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. Steelers, at Cowboys, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers

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NFC playoff picture

1. Detroit Lions (9-1), NFC North leaders: After Sunday’s 52-6 walkover against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Lions’ biggest concern might be that they’re peaking too early. Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2), NFC East leaders: Philly pulled away from Washington on Thursday night to solidify its hold on first place in the division – and might need that padding later in the process. However the Iggles are also now officially a clear and present danger to Detroit. Remaining schedule: at Rams, at Ravens, vs. Panthers, vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Arizona Cardinals (6-4), NFC West leaders: A bye week interrupted their four-game in streak. But Atlanta’s loss also moved Arizona up one spot in terms of seeding. The Cards’ 2-0 record in divisional games serves them well; their 3-3 mark in NFC games won’t help them in the tiebreaker department with Atlanta (6-2). Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, at Vikings, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5), NFC South leaders: A season sweep of the Bucs effectively gives Atlanta a three-game lead in the division. The Falcons have no such edge on the suddenly surging Saints. Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

5. Minnesota Vikings (8-2), wild card No. 1: They’re won three in a row, all against AFC South competition, to maintain this spot – while staying a game back of Detroit in the NFC North. Remaining schedule: at Bears, vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

6. Green Bay Packers (7-3), wild card No. 2: They were fortunate to escape Chicago with a win … meaning they also remain relevant in the NFC North despite how dominant Detroit seems. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (7-4), wild card No. 3: Thursday night’s loss to Philly hurts, costing Washington seeding for now, but should also be a learning experience. And the Commanders do seem to have an easier lineup than Philly to contend with the rest of the way, one that might keep them in contention for the NFC East throne. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Titans, BYE, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Los Angeles Rams (5-5), in the hunt: Wins over the 49ers and Seahawks give them a tenuous advantage among the conference’s currently .500 lot. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Saints, vs. Bills, at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

9. Seattle Seahawks (5-5), in the hunt: They’re only 1-2 in the division, but that’s better than the Niners, whom Seattle just split its season series with. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, at Jets, at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

10. San Francisco 49ers (5-5), in the hunt: They dropped to 1-3 in NFC West games, which dropped them down the conference table and could make it really tough to win the division if it continues to remain packed together. Remaining schedule: at Packers, at Bills, vs. Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), in the hunt: They actually made up a bit of ground on their off week. Now, if they can get key players like WR Mike Evans back, the opportunity is there to have a strong finishing kick. Remaining schedule: at Giants, at Panthers, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

12. Chicago Bears (4-6), in the hunt: A four-game skid suggests they might not be in the hunt much longer – especially given what they’re about to face. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Lions, at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers

13. New Orleans Saints (4-7), in the hunt: They’re 2-0 under interim HC Darren Rizzi. And given the way the NFC South is compressing … Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. Rams, at Giants, vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers

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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.