Who is overvalued and undervalued in first CFP rankings?
They unveiled the brand new toy Tuesday night, and I know this is going to shock everyone, but it’s the same old show.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff rankings are identical to the current Associated Press poll — with the exception of Ohio State and Georgia swapping No. 2 and No. 3 positions.
Surely, that’s merely a coincidence because we’ve been told over and over how polls are meaningless in college football until the CFP rankings arrive. When all else fails, copy the media. Or is that blame the media?
“We don’t look at the public polls,” said CFP committee chairman and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel.
It’s a thankless job. No matter where the ranking goes, there will be angst and anger. And Manuel, as the point of the 13-member selection committee, will take the criticism from perceived misses.
A look at the overvalued and undervalued teams in the first CFP rankings.
Overvalued
∎ Penn State (No. 6 rank, No. 7 seed)
Best win: 21-7 vs. Illinois
Worst loss: 20-13 vs. Ohio State
Opponent record: 33-34
The skinny: I can’t get over first and goal from the 3, and running the ball three straight times into the teeth of the Ohio State defense, when quarterback Drew Allar is the key to this team winning big games.
Penn State isn’t among the best six teams in the nation and may not be among the best 12. This team falls in line with the rest of Penn State’s teams under coach James Franklin (except 2016): stout defense, conservative offense. And a whole lot of boredom.
∎ Texas (No. 5 rank, No. 6 seed)
Best win: 27-24 at Vanderbilt
Worst loss: 30-15 vs. Georgia
Opponent record: 40-30 (20-15, SEC)
The skinny: The schedule strength looks solid until you dive deeper. Texas was blown out at home by Georgia and held off Vanderbilt for its most impressive win.
Too much weight has been placed on a September win at average Michigan, and the day we start giving credit for Group of Five wins is the day the CFP poll is meaningless.
∎ Notre Dame (No. 10 rank, No. 10 seed)
Best win: 23-13 at Texas A&M
Worst loss: 16-14 vs. NIU
Opponent record: 35-33
The skinny: Are we really going to rubber-stamp the Irish based on a season-opening win at Texas A&M?
Are we really going to overlook a schedule that includes two MAC schools (one beat Notre Dame), two service academies, the worst Big Ten team (Purdue), five ACC schools and the worst USC team since pre-2000? Surely the CFP is better than this.
Undervalued
∎ Tennessee (No. 7 ranked, No. 8 seed)
Best win: 24-17 vs. Alabama
Worst loss: 19-14 at Arkansas
Opponent record: 33-36
The skinny: The Vols are in the best position of any team in a crowded SEC race. Win out ― Mississippi State, at Georgia, UTEP, at Vanderbilt ― and Tennessee is in the SEC championship game for the first time since 2007.
They have the No. 2 defense in the SEC and the No. 1 running game. The only thing that’s lacking is accuracy in the pass game from QB Nico Iamaleava. If he improves over the final month of the season, it will be difficult for anyone in the SEC to beat the Vols.
∎ Boise State (No. 12 ranking, No. 12 seed)
Best win: 45-24 vs. Washington State
Worst loss: 37-34 at Oregon
Opponent record: 39-28
The skinny: The key to Boise State’s resume: No. 1 Oregon needed a kick return for a touchdown, a punt return for a touchdown and a last-second field goal to beat the Broncos in Eugene, Oregon.
But it gets better: Boise State handed Washington State its only loss (by 21), won on the road at UNLV and will likely cruise to the Mountain West championship. By the end of Championship Week in December, the Broncos could have a strong enough resume to earn one of the four first-round byes.
∎ No. 13 SMU
Best win: 34-27 at Louisville
Worst loss: 18-15 vs. BYU
Opponent record: 41-39
The skinny: Dynamic QB Kevin Jennings wasn’t the starter in a three-point loss to BYU, and this is a completely different team as he develops week by week.
With three games remaining (Boston College, at Virginia, Cal), SMU is a near lock to play in the ACC championship game with a CFP first-round bye on the line. The big question: Will the committee think enough of SMU even if it loses in the ACC championship?
Best win: 27-3 at South Carolina
Worst loss: 20-17 vs. Kentucky
Opponent record: 39-38
The skinny: Without gut-punch losses to Kentucky and LSU on unthinkable, last-minute fourth-down conversions, the Rebels would be unbeaten and ranked No. 2 in the nation. And the non-conference schedule (Furman, Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee, Georgia Southern) isn’t a factor.
The season comes down to Saturday’s game against Georgia in Oxford. Win, and the Rebels make a significant jump and need only to win at Florida and against Mississippi State to reach the CFP.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
