Georgia’s ties with the West face an uncertain future as all sides claim election victory

Georgia’s most powerful man claimed victory in an election on Saturday but the opposition called on the ruling party to admit defeat, setting the stage for a confrontation over the future of the South Caucasus country.

Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, the opposition, and foreign diplomats had cast the election as a watershed moment that would decide if Georgia moves closer to the West or leans back towards Russia amid the war in Ukraine.

Early official results with 70% of precincts counted, showed the ruling party had won 53% of the vote, the electoral commission said, but the deeply divided pro-Western opposition parties said that they had collectively clinched a majority.

Rival exit polls gave sharply different projections for the election. The Georgian Dream-supporting Imedi TV channel showed the ruling party winning 56%. Exit polls by the pro-opposition channels showed major gains for the opposition parties.

Ivanishvili, the ruling party’s reclusive billionaire founder and onetime prime minister, claimed victory and praised the Georgian people. But the opposition also celebrated victory and said Ivanishvili should concede.

Tina Bokuchava, leader of the United National Movement party of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, told Reuters that the opposition had won by a good margin of 10%.

“Against that backdrop most people will be taking Bidzina Ivanishvili’s claims of a government majority with a large bucket of salt,” Bokuchava said.

“We believe the Georgian public has voted clearly for a future at the heart of Europe and no amount of posturing will change that.”

Crucial vote

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili – a one-time ally of the ruling party turned fierce critic whose powers are mostly ceremonial – and independent domestic election monitors had alleged Georgian Dream was engaged in widespread vote-buying and other forms of electoral abuse in the lead-up to the vote.

Georgian Dream did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, came to power in 2012 advocating pro-Western views, alongside a pragmatic policy towards Russia.

He has since soured on the West, accusing a “Global War Party” of seeking to drag Georgia into war with Russia, even as he insists Georgia is on course to join the EU.

Some Georgians told Reuters that they wanted change.

“I voted for freedom and for the European choice,” said voter Irakli Andronikashvili in Tbilisi on Saturday, adding that he wanted a government which was “more progressive, less corrupt and more common-sense.”

Georgia was once one of the most pro-Western states to emerge from the chaotic aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse. The road leading from Tbilisi’s airport is named after former US President George W. Bush.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Tbilisi’s relations with the West have taken a sharp downward turn. Unlike many Western allies, Georgia declined to impose sanctions on Moscow, while Georgian Dream’s rhetoric has become increasingly pro-Russian.

Georgian Dream has drawn the ire of its Western allies for what they cast as its increasingly authoritarian bent. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban congratulated Georgian Dream for an “overwhelming victory.”

The pro-opposition Formula exit poll said that the ruling party would be the single largest party but that the four main opposition parties combined would have 83 seats.

Georgia’s four main opposition blocs are deeply divided, and it is unclear if they will be able to work together if they deprive Georgian Dream of its majority.

Sandro Dvalishvili, a 23-year-old Georgian Dream activist, told Reuters last week that Georgia would face “danger” if his party of choice was defeated at the polls.

“If it turns out that we don’t win, for me that’ll be very bad. Because I don’t see another force that will bring peace and stability to our country,” he said.