HSBC raises price targets on China real estate stocks

Investing.com — HSBC in a note dated Wednesday raised its price targets on several Chinese real estate stocks, reflecting growing optimism surrounding the sector’s potential recovery, driven by supportive government policies. 

The increase in target prices, averaging a 36% uplift across the sector, underscores HSBC’s confidence in the ongoing stabilization efforts and a possible earlier-than-expected recovery of China’s housing market.

Analysts at HSBC have pointed to several key factors contributing to this upward revision. A major driver is the Chinese government’s unprecedented commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, which has reshaped the outlook for both developers and investors. 

Initially, the market had anticipated a recovery to materialize around 2026, but recent policy interventions have shifted expectations, suggesting a turnaround could come as early as 2025. This has fostered a fear of missing out among investors, especially with policy tailwinds bolstering sentiment and increasing the risk appetite in the sector.

Another major factor for HSBC’s bullish outlook is the surge in developer activity, especially in landbanking, as well as steady project launches. 

The analysts cited positive developments in key cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, where land auctions have seen premiums, alongside continued strong sales in Shanghai’s luxury real estate market. 

These activities indicate that developers are moving quickly to capitalize on the policy environment, particularly ahead of important market checkpoints such as the Golden Week​.

HSBC’s upward revisions include a broad array of developers, including Agile, which has been upgraded from a Reduce to Hold rating. 

Meanwhile, stocks with high exposure to top-tier cities, such as Yuexiu (HK:0123), Greentown (HK:3900), and China Overseas Land & Investment (OTC:CAOVY), have all been rated as “buy,” reflecting HSBC’s belief that these firms will benefit the most from the policy environment. 

The revaluation also extends to companies like CR Mixc and KE Holdings (NYSE:BEKE) (HK:2423), which are expected to see gains from rising consumer activity and market leadership.

While the outlook has brightened, HSBC analysts have cautioned that risks remain. Chief among them is the potential failure to stabilize home prices, which could delay the anticipated recovery.

Nonetheless, the raised price targets and positive sentiment highlight a broader market shift, indicating that the worst of the downturn may be behind the sector​.