Barclays sees muted demand for iPhone 16

Barclays analysts said in a note Monday that they see muted demand for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 16 based on shorter lead times and channel checks during the first week of pre-orders.

According to Barclays, the early signs are “not encouraging,” as both the Pro and base models have seen a weaker response compared to last year’s iPhone 15 launch.

The note highlights significantly shorter wait times across key geographies, particularly for the iPhone 16 Pro models.

In the U.S., the iPhone 16 Pro Max’s lead time during the first week was just 26 days, compared to 41 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. Barclays adds that similarly, the iPhone 16 Pro had an 18-day wait, down from 25 days last year.

In China, where demand is considered a crucial indicator for Apple, the iPhone 16 Pro Max wait time is said to have dropped to 18 days, from 36 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max.

Barclays believes the shorter lead times and lower demand signal “weaker than expected demand, especially across the US and China,” where consumer spending has softened.

Additionally, global pre-order units are estimated to be down by mid-teens percentage year-over-year, according to the firm’s supply chain contacts.

The roll-out of Apple Intelligence, a key feature for the iPhone 16, is delayed until 2025 for markets like China and parts of Europe. Barclays believes the delay could dampen enthusiasm for the new model.

The bank also pointed out that the earlier iPhone launch gives Apple two extra days of sales for the September quarter, but this is unlikely to offset the weaker demand trends.

With these headwinds, Barclays maintains its Underweight rating and $186 price target on Apple, suggesting that iPhone 16 demand may continue to lag unless sell-through improves in the coming months.